Assuming that’s true, I expect 2010 to be another run of True Believers. I know I’ve mentioned elsewhere, but I’ll say it again – there’s the tendency (on both sides of the divide) to say something to the effect of, “we lost because we weren’t True to Our Beliefs, and so Our People just didn’t turn out.” It’s been very prevalent among Republicans during the past decade (Kansas, California) but not absent in the Democratic party. That said, 2010 will be the fight of the True Believers.

2012 might be the last True Believer fight – I’m just not certain, yet. If it is, it will concentrate in the presidential primary to challenge Obama. It would be tremendously easy to believe that would be the collapse of the Republican party, but I don’t think so. I think instead it’ll be the collapse of it as it is, and the New Guard will begin to take hold.

The GOP won’t go away unless the Old Guard can hold in 2012, and hold so strong that it forces the New Guard to join someone else. Thing is, I just think it unlikely.

2014 is the year we see. Either we see a new breed of GOP candidates, or we see a clear duality (or more) within the Dems, or we see a strong (though small) third party getting seats. All are possible – in fact, none are mutually exclusive, though the likelihood of any two or all three happening is small. Still, if the GOP is going to crack that’s the year we know for certain.

On the other hand, they really appear to be disorganized, or at least that’s the vibe I get.

I’m more or less a life-long Democrat though I did work for John Anderson during the 1980 campaign.

The older I get, the more like a curmudgeon I get.

I read later that one of Kerry’s operatives said that Kerry outperformed their goals in Ohio; the GOP turnout was just more extraordinary.

The danger I see to Obama is among the vast majority of voters who don’t read blogs and who may not even know the difference between Olberman and O’Reilly…but they vote in high numbers with great regularity.

I might start a poll about one thing over at MyDD: what was your defining political experience? For me, it was my first election, 1972, and the 49-state ass-kicking that Nixon gave McGovern.

McGovern…Mondale…Dukakis…I’d like to be on the giving end instead of the receiving end and there’s no better time than now. Clinton/Dole in ‘96 would have been pretty good.

Given how heavily Obama outspent Hillary to fight her virtually to a draw, he is going to need the money in the fall he will get. Frankly, if Obama needs to outspend McCain 4-1 to get to 270 and not one electoral vote beyond that, my disposition will be sunny. As George W. Bush after his loss in 2000 proved, winning isn’t everything; it’s the only thing.

NPR observed something yesterday morning that I also have observed. Obama ran up the scoreboard in February, and then he seemed content to skate till the end. That might work in the Democratic nominating process, but it would be a disaster in the General Election. In October, the numbers sometimes have a way of crystallizing. You damn well can bet that the Republicans have a number of moves they are planning for that period that they hope will be fatal. I don’t think our nominee has the taste for blood. I am not sanguine that he will return fire. I do believe he will respond quickly, but can he deliver a fatal blow to McCain? Maybe he doesn’t need to.

Another strategy of Obama’s that I like is his emphasis on the youth vote. I believe there are young white and black voters who would never have bothered to register if Hillary had been the nominee who actually will show up at the polls in November. In fact, I am pretty sure there are some adult voters who would not have registered if Hillary had won but who will show up to vote in the fall. This might offset some of our demographic weaknesses you mentioned.

Like I say, I’ll be happy with 270.

The thing I like about what you’re doing is that the Democratic blogosphere was utterly delusional in 2004. There were many signs that we were going to lose, but we spun them into meaninglessness. I promised myself I would never fall victim again to wishful thinking in politics. This site is a step in the right direction.

I don’t think Obama is a bad candidate — I just thought Hillary was so much better. I’ve even begun to like him on a personal level. I think he’ll win. But he isn’t Hillary, and I still complain about his healthcare plan. The only “new politics” I see is his commitment to the 50-State Strategy, and that IS important. He’s a great fundraiser, too. But he obviously knows how to play dirty when he needs to, so the idea that he’s stepping away from “old politics” is slightly… well, to put it politely, I don’t think it’s entirely accurate. And no one can fix the corruption in Washington in 4-8 years. It’s too deeply ingrained.